Macroeconomic survey
of the Bank of Russia

¹ In parentheses are the results of the July 2026 survey.
² Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
³ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
⁴ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 28 August – 1 September, 2026.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 33 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators.

• Inflation: Analysts have raised their forecast for 2026 to 6.6% (+0.4 pp compared to the July survey). Analysts expect that inflation will slow down to 4.6% in 2027 and will be close to the target in 2028–2029.
• Key rate: Forecasts are almost unchanged: 14.5% per annum in 2026 (this implies that the key rate will average 13.7% per annum for the remainder of 2026), 12.4% per annum (+0.2 pp) in 2027 and 10.0% per annum in 2028. The forecast for the end of the horizon (8.6% per annum) remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 7.9% (-0.4 pp) in 2026, 7.6% (+0.2 pp) in 2027, 5.8% (+0.1 pp) in 2028 and 4.5% (-0.1 pp) in 2029.
• GDP: Growth forecasts for 2026–2027 have been lowered by 0.1 pp to 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. Growth forecasts for the next years remain unchanged at 1.7% for 2028 and 1.8% for 2029. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has been raised by 0.1 pp to 1.8%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth from 2021 to 2029 will total +14.5% (1.8% per year on average).
• Unemployment rate: No changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment rate to be 2.2% in 2026 and to rise to 2.5% in 2027, to 2.7% in 2028 and to 2.8% in 2029, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) figures.
• Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast for nominal wage growth for 2026 and lowered it for 2027. They expect nominal wage growth to slow down to 10.4% (+0.2 pp) in 2026, to 7.5% (-0.5 pp) in 2027, to 7.0% in 2028 and to 6.5% in 2029. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 4.1% in 2026, by 2.2% in 2027, by 2.5% in 2028 and by 2.3% in 2029. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 40.3% higher than in 2021 (5.0% per year on average).
• Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit in 2026–2028: 3.5% of GDP (up by 0.3 pp) in 2026, 2.6% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp) in 2027, 2.1% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 has been lowered by 0.1 pp to 1.4% of GDP.
• Exports of goods and services: Analysts have slightly lowered their forecast for 2026 and raised it for subsequent years: $508 billion (-$2 billion) in 2026, $486 billion (+$3 billion) in 2027 and $495 billion (+$6 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $501 billion (+$4 billion). This is 9% ($49 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
• Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have been raised over the entire horizon: $430 billion (+$10 billion) in 2026, $436 billion (+$6 billion) in 2027 and $446 billion (+$7 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $457 billion (+$7 billion). This is 21% ($80 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
• USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a weaker ruble (by 1.4–2.5%) over the entire horizon compared to the July survey. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 79.9 rubles per dollar in 2026 (this implies that the exchange rate will average 84.9 rubles per dollar in September–December 2026), 88.8 rubles per dollar in 2027, 94.0 rubles per dollar in 2028 and 97.2 rubles per dollar in 2029.
• Oil price for tax purposes: No significant changes. Analysts expect that oil price will be $64 per barrel in 2026 (this implies that the oil price will average $59 per barrel for the remainder of 2026) and decrease to $56 per barrel in 2027 and remain at this level further on.