Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: December 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
6,3 (6,6) |
5,1 (5,1) |
4,0 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
8,8 (8,9) |
5,5 (5,5) |
4,5 (4,4) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
19,2 (19,2) |
14,1 (13,7) |
10,3 (10,0) |
8,9 (9,0) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
0,9 (1,0) |
1,1 (1,2) |
1,7 (1,8) |
1,8 (1,9) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
4,0 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,2 (2,3) |
2,4 (2,5) |
2,7 (2,7) |
3,0 (3,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
19,0 |
13,3 (13,2) |
8,2 (8,4) |
7,0 (7,0) |
7,0 (7,0) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-2,9 (-3,0) |
-2,2 (-1,7) |
-1,5 (-1,2) |
-1,3 (-1,2) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
477 |
451 (451) |
450 (455) |
468 (472) |
484 (485) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
383 |
386 (385) |
396 (392) |
405 (403) |
421 (416) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
83,8 (85,0) |
90,3 (94,6) |
97,6 (100,0) |
102,0 (103,7) |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения2 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
56 (58) |
54 (58) |
57 (60) |
60 (60) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка3 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,9 (12,5) |
9,0 (8,6) |
6,1 (5,7) |
4,6 (5,0) |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,1 |
108,0 (108,1) |
109,2 (109,5) |
111,0 (111,4) |
113,2 (113,6) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата4 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,1 |
4,1 (4,0) |
2,7 (2,7) |
2,4 (2,9) |
2,6 (2,6) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
119,1 |
124,0 (123,8) |
127,3 (127,1) |
130,4 (130,9) |
133,9 (134,6) |
|
| Торговый баланс (товары и услуги) (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
66 (65) |
49 (61) |
61 (69) |
60 (70) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,0) |
||||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (2,0) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2029 – 2033 годов. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,5-2,3) |
||||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the October 2025 survey.
2 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
3 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates:
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 30 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, GDP growth, unemployment rate, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Analysts have raised the forecasts for 2025 to 6.3% (-0.3 pp compared to the October survey). The forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 5.1%. Analysts expect that inflation will return to 4% (-0.1 pp) in 2027 and remain at the target further on.
- Key rate: Expectations for the average key rate in 2025 are unchanged at 19.2% per annum (this implies that the key rate will average 16.5% per annum for the remainder of 2025). Forecasts for 2026–2027 have been raised to 14.1% per annum (+0.4 pp) and 10.3% per annum (+0.3 pp) respectively. The forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is 8.9% per annum (-0.1 pp). It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 12.9% in 2025 (+0.4 pp), 9.0% (+0.4 pp) in 2026, 6.1% (+0.4 pp) in 2027 and 4.6% (-0.4 pp) in 2028.
- GDP: Growth forecast has been lowered over the entire forecast horizon by 0.1 pp – to 0.9% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, 1.7% for 2027 and 1.8% for 2028 respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has been lowered by 0.2 pp to 1.8%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth in 2028 to the 2021 level will total +13.2% (average rate: 1.9% per year).
- Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to decrease to 2.2% (-0.1 pp) in 2025, rise to 2.4% (-0.1 pp) in 2026, to 2.7% in 2027 and to 3.0% in 2028, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) values.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have not changed their forecast for nominal wage growth significantly. They expect nominal wages to grow by 13.3% (+0.1 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.2% (-0.2 pp) in 2026 and to 7.0% in 2027 and 2028. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 4.1% in 2025, 2.7% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 33.9% higher than in 2021 (average rate: 4.8% per year).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts’ forecast has remained almost unchanged for 2025 but they expect higher consolidated budget deficit in subsequent years: 2.9% of GDP (down by 0.1 pp) in 2025, 2.2% of GDP (up by 0.5 pp) in 2026, 1.5% of GDP (up by 0.3 pp) in 2027 and 1.3% (up by 0.1 pp) of GDP in 2028.
- Exports of goods and services: Expectations for 2025 are unchanged ($451 billion), forecasts for the next years have been lowered slightly: to $450 billion (-$5 billion) in 2026 and $468 billion (-$4 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $484 billion (-$1 billion). This is 12% ($66 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have been raised slightly: $386 billion (+$1 billion) in 2025, $396 billion (+$4 billion) in 2026 and $405 billion (+$2 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $421 billion (+$5 billion). This is 12% ($44 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble compared to the October survey over the entire forecast horizon. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 83.8 rubles per dollar in 2025 (this implies that the exchange rate will average 81.0 rubles per dollar in December 2025), 90.3 rubles per dollar in 2026, 97.6 rubles per dollar in 2027 and 102.0 rubles per dollar in 2028. The ruble is expected to be 1.4–4.6% stronger compared to the October survey.
- Oil price for tax purposes: Forecasts for 2025–2027 have been lowered to $56 per barrel in 2025 (this implies that the oil price will average $44 per barrel in December 2025), $54 per barrel in 2026 and $57 per barrel in 2027. Analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will rise to $60 per barrel by the end of forecast horizon.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 30 January to 3 February 2026.
Survey participants
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбер КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбер ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Россельхозбанк | Т-Инвестиции | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | РЭШ | УК «Первая» |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 10.12.2025