Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: March 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт/оценка2) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
7,0 (6,8) |
4,8 (4,6) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
9,4 (9,2) |
5,5 (5,4) |
4,3 (4,3) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
20,1 (20,5) |
14,3 (15,0) |
10,0 (10,4) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 | -1,4 (-1,2) | 4,1 (3,6) | 4,1 (3,9) | 1,7 (1,6) | 1,8 (1,7) | 2,0 (2,0) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 |
3,6 |
3,0 |
2,3 |
2,6 (2,6) |
2,7 (2,7) |
3,0 (2,9) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
18,3 |
12,6 (12,5) |
8,1 (8,0) |
7,0 (7,1) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-1,2 (-1,2) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
466 |
459 |
458 (458) |
464 (463) |
475 (472) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
379 |
375 |
382 (380) |
393 (390) |
402 (399) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
98,5 (104,7) |
104,0 (108,8) |
107,0 (110,4) |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения3 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка4 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,8 (13,4) |
9,1 (9,8) |
5,7 (6,3) |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 | 98,6 (98,8) | 102,6 (102,4) | 106,9 (106,3) | 108,6 (108,0) | 110,5 (109,8) | 112,5 (111,9) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата5 (%, г/г) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,1 |
3,2 (3,3) |
2,5 (2,5) |
2,7 (2,5) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
118,4 |
122,2 (121,3) |
125,0 (124,3) |
127,3 (127,4) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
84 |
73 (77) |
73 (75) |
73 (73) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,0) |
|||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,9) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,3) |
|||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the February 2025 survey.
2 In 2024: CPI, key rate, GDP, unemployment rate, nominal wages, consolidated budget balance, USD / RUB exchange rate and oil price for tax purposes are actual values; exports, imports and trade balance are Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimates.
3 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. "
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
5 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates:
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 30 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for exports, imports, USD/RUB exchange rate, and oil price for tax purposes are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 7.0% (+0.2 pp compared to the February survey) for 2025, and to 4.8% (+0.2 pp) for 2026. Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2027.
- Key rate: Analysts have lowered the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast is 20.1% per annum (-0.4 pp) in 2025, and 14.3% per annum (-0.7 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (10.0% per annum) remains significantly higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate, calculated based on analysts’ forecasts, decreased over the entire forecast horizon: to 12.8% (-0.6 pp) in 2025, 9.1% (-0.7 pp) in 2026, and 5.7% (-0.6 pp) in 2027.
- GDP: Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised somewhat, the forecast for 2027 has not changed: 1.7% (+0.1 pp), 1.8% (+0.1 pp), and 2.0%, respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has also slightly decreased to 1.8% (-0.1 pp). According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.5% (+11.9%, according to the February survey).
- Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect that unemployment will rise to 2.6% in 2025, 2.7% in 2026, and 3.0% (+0.1 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth in
2025–2026. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.6% (+0.1 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.1% (+0.1 pp) in 2026, and to 7.0% (-0.1 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 3.2% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 2.7% in 2027. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.3% higher than in 2021 (27.4% higher, according to the February survey). - Consolidated budget balance: No changes. Analysts expect consolidated budget deficit to reach 1.2% of GDP in 2025, and 1.0% of GDP in
2026–2027. - Exports of goods and services: No significant changes. Analysts expect exports to be $458 billion in 2025, $464 billion (+$1 billion) in 2026, and $475 billion (+$3 billion) in 2027. This is 14% ($75 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have been revised upwards slightly: $382 billion (+$2 billion) in 2025, $393 billion (+$3 billion) in 2026, $402 billion (+$3 billion) in 2027. This is 7% ($25 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon. They expect the average exchange rate to reach 98.5 rubles per dollar in 2025, 104.0 rubles per dollar in 2026, and 107.0 rubles per dollar in 2027 (the ruble in
2025–2027 is 3.1–5.9% stronger compared to the February survey). - Oil price for tax purposes: According to analysts’ expectations, the Russian oil price for tax purposes will average $65 per barrel in
2025–2027.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
(%, YoY)
GDP
%, yoy
GDP
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
Real wages
(cumulative level, 2021 = 100)
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
(billions of US dollars per year)
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 11 to 15 April 2025.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
Was this page useful?
Last updated on: 12.03.2025